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Voters skeptical of UK promises of Brexit upside

LONDON — Theresa May has a problem: Half of Britain still doesnt believe her government on Brexit.

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LONDON — Theresa May has a problem: Half of Britain still doesnt believe her government on Brexit.

The U.K. chancellor called time on austerity Monday with the biggest giveaway budget since the 2008 financial crash, splurging £100 billion more over the next six years than previously planned — and with almost all of it going on the National Health Service.

With an eye to the upcoming vote on the Brexit divorce deal with Brussels, Philip Hammond also held out the prospect of even more spending to come if the country secures an orderly exit from the EU, promising MPs a “double deal dividend” for the economy and public spending if they back a deal and avoid crashing out of the European Union in March 2019.

The twin-pronged message — of an end to austerity and an extra Brexit deal bonus for voters — in the governments last annual budget before the U.K. quits the bloc comes at a time of maximum danger for May. As well as seeking a deal with Brussels that is acceptable both in the U.K. parliament and to the country more widely, the prime minister must also neutralize the threat from Jeremy Corbyns Labour Party, which continues to sit within touching distance of the government in most polls.

However, according to an exclusive snap poll carried out for POLITICO by Hanbury Strategy, the government only successfully landed one of these two core budget messages. While there is overwhelming public support for the governments decision to end the public spending squeeze, which has been in place since 2010, the poll showed continued skepticism about warnings of the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

The POLITICO/Hanbury poll shows the country remains as divided as ever over Brexit.

In an apparent vindication of Mays decision to draw a line under the post-crash era of austerity, 57 percent said the government should spend more money rather than balance the books, with just 12 percent saying the priority should be getting back into the black. By almost four to one — 57 percent to 14 percent — voters also support the governments decision to spend almost all the extra cash from an unexpected boost in tax receipts on health care rather than other public services.

However, according to the poll of 500 adults carried out between 6.30 p.m. and 9 p.m. on Monday, the public is still split on the chancellors warning that a failure to reach a Brexit agreement with Brussels could jeopardize future spending increases on public services.

Nothing has changed

The POLITICO/Hanbury poll shows the country remains as divided as ever over Brexit, with 52 percent either not buying the warning that leaving the EU without a deal would negatively impact spending on public services or saying reduced public spending would be a price worth paying.

In an echo of the 2016 EU referendum, 48 percent say they agree with the government that no deal will mean less money for public services and this is not a price worth paying.

The findings are a blow to the chancellor, who told MPs that securing a Brexit deal with the EU would deliver a “double deal dividend” to the U.K. economy.

With the chances of no-deal rising, Hammond has kept aside £15 billion of “firepower” to spend in case the U.K. crashes out of the EU. In the event that May can broker a deal with Brussels, Treasury officials said this money would be freed up to be spent on public services.

“Were at a pivotal moment in our EU negotiations and the stakes could not be higher,” Hammond said. “Get it right and we will not only protect Britains jobs, businesses and prosperity but we will also harvest a double deal dividend: a boost from the end of uncertainty and a boost from releasing some of the fiscal headroom that I am holding in reserve at the moment.”

Conservative Brexiteer MPs concerned that the prime ministers Brexit plan will bind the U.K. too closely to EU rules will likely jump on the findings to argue that the fallout from a no deal can be contained.

Buying time

The immediate effect of Mondays budget, however, is that it has bought the prime minister more time.

There had been reports that Northern Irelands Democratic Unionists, who prop up Mays government in Westminster, were willing to vote down the budget if the prime minister agreed Brexit withdrawal terms with the EU that created an economic border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This threat evaporated.

Hammond singled out Northern Ireland for investment, with £350 million set aside for the Belfast region, among other measures. The partys Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, tweeted that the DUPs confidence and supply agreement with the government was “delivering again.”

One minister said the giveaway budget revealed just how precarious the governments position now was.

“It just shows where we are,” he said. “This was all about soft-soaping the parliamentary party and the DUP. The truth is now, we are only able to get something through parliament now if we throw cash at it.

While the public remains skeptical of continued warnings about the economic cost of a disorderly Brexit, there was widespread support for the tax and spending measures in the budget.

“The whole budget was designed to avoid a parliamentary vote which we might lose. It means you cant raise taxes or cut spending. It highlights the weakness of the government. We could have said, OK, lets raise taxes for some of the spending, but no. Nothing that involves a tax rise or a spending cut is possible. This is the new reality — all the power is with parliament.”

Another senior Tory MP said Hammond had been left with little choice but to turn on the spending taps, insisting he needed to “fight the austerity label” that was killing the Tories. “Have you seen the Labour ads?” he said.

A third senior Tory — another minister — said it was a “one-nation budget at a time of uncertainty” but admitted it did not leave much room to absorb an economic downturn. “This is why as smooth a Brexit as possible is what we need.”

In analysis released alongside Mondays budget, the governments independent economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, warned a “disorderly [Brexit] could have severe short-term implications for the economy.” However, it said: “The scale would be very hard to predict, given the lack of precedent,” the OBRs accompanying forecast document said.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond poses for pictures with the Budget Box as he leaves 11 Downing Street | Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP via Getty Images

The OBR called a no-deal Brexit “the most immediate and significant” downside risk currently affecting the British economy.

While the public remains skeptical of continued warnings about the economic cost of a disorderly Brexit, there was widespread support for the tax and spending measures in the budget.

The proposed new “Google tax” on giant U.S. tech companies is extremely popular with the country, according to the POLITICO/Hanbury Strategy poll, with over nine in 10 supporting it. One third of those polled said it does not go far enough.

Overall, the majority of the country — 56 percent — said Mondays budget will be neither good nor bad for their family. However, in a boost for the government, the number of people who think it will be good is almost three times as many as those who think it will be bad — 33 percent to 11 percent.

Hanbury Strategy — a member of the British Polling Council — polls people on their smartphones by advertising on up to 60,000 apps and targeting different types of handsets.

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NHS ‘should not prescribe acne drug’

The parents of young people who have killed themselves and patients unable to have sex are calling f..

The parents of young people who have killed themselves and patients unable to have sex are calling for the NHS to stop prescribing acne drug Roaccutane.

Ed Henthorn said it had caused him erectile dysfunction, psychosis and suicidal thoughts.

And one man who believes his son killed himself after taking the drug said the risks "are just too high".

Manufacturer Roche said "millions of patients worldwide have benefited from taking the drug".

The majority of those who take the drug have a positive experience.

'Pretty overwhelming'

"I used to think about girls… but my feelings, thoughts, just faded away," Ed Henthorn told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire programme.

He was 19 when he took Roaccutane. He describes his acne as mild but bad enough to want to treat.

After three weeks he started to experience side-effects, including reduced energy and sex drive.

Then he experienced erectile dysfunction.

"That was why I decided to stop taking it," he said. (more…)

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Spina bifida: Keyhole surgery repairs baby spine in womb

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In a UK first, doctors have used keyhole surgery to su..

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In a UK first, doctors have used keyhole surgery to successfully repair the spine of a baby with spina bifida while it was still inside the womb.

Surgeons at King's College Hospital say the procedure is not a cure, but could be the difference between some children learning to walk or not.

Sherrie Sharp and her son Jaxson had the operation 27 weeks into the pregnancy.

Spina bifida was diagnosed after the routine 20-week pregnancy scans.

They showed Jaxson's spine and spinal cord were not forming correctly.

Gaps in the developing spine meant the cord was bulging out of his back and was left exposed to the amniotic fluid in the womb.

This damages the crucial nerves in the spinal cord and could lead to paralysis, a loss of sensation in the legs and problems controlling the bladder and bowels.

The longer the spinal cord is left exposed, the greater the damage.

Sherrie, 29, and from West Sussex, said the news was a shock, but an abortion was a "definite no". (more…)

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Less chemotherapy better for older or frail patients with advanced stomach and oesophageal cancers

Less chemotherapy is as effective at controlling disease for elderly or frail patients with advanced..

Less chemotherapy is as effective at controlling disease for elderly or frail patients with advanced cancer of the stomach or oesophagus (food pipe), and leads to fewer side effects such as diarrhoea and lethargy. These are the results of a Cancer Research UK funded study, presented prior to the ASCO conference today (Wednesday).

“Increasingly were realising its not just age that affects how well someone can tolerate their treatment and we need to do more work to understand how other conditions or aspects of frailty might play a role.” Dr Peter Hall, Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Centre[contfnewc]

Results from the GO2 trial could change the standard of care for patients who cant have full dose chemotherapy due to their age, frailty or medical fitness.

The study, which ran at hospitals all over the UK, coordinated from the University of Leeds, involved 514 people with stomach or oesophageal cancer. Their average age was 76 and the oldest was 96 years old. All were either frail, elderly or medically unfit, and for those reasons would be unlikely to tolerate full-strength treatment, which involves three chemotherapy drugs.

Patients went through a careful medical assessment, then went onto chemotherapy with just two drugs* and were allocated at random to receive them at either full-strength, medium-dose or low-dose. They were then carefully monitored to see how well the cancer was controlled, whether they had symptoms and side-effects, whether they felt their treatment was worthwhile, and what overall effect it had on their quality of life.

The researchers reported that the medium and lower doses of chemotherapy were as effective as the full-strength dose for controlling the cancer. But when the researchers looked at the overall effect of treatment, including quality of life, they reported that it was the lowest dose treatment that came out best.**

Around 15,800 people in the UK are diagnosed with stomach and oesophageal cancers every year***. Almost half (45%) of these people are 75 and over****. By 2035, this proportion is projected to rise to 55%*****, because of the UKs ageing population. This study, is one of few phase III trials in the country that seek to address how to best care for and treat this increasing population of elderly or frail cancer patients.

These findings also open up the possibility of more older and frail patients being able to take part in clinical trials.

Professor Charles Swanton, Cancer Research UKs chief clinician, said: “These valuable results reduce fears that giving a lower dose chemotherapy regimen is inferior and could make a huge difference for patients with stomach or oesophageal cancer who cant tolerate intensive courses of treatment.

“Older or frail patients are often not considered for new drug trials or standard of care therapy as theyre less able to tolerate combination chemotherapy. These trials are critical to provide much needed evidence on the effectiveness of new therapies and combination approaches, helping us develop new treatments for this growing group of patients.”

The researchers also assessed whether there were differences for the patients in the study who were under 75, or less frail, who might be expected to benefit from stronger treatment; but will be reporting that the lowest dose treatment gave the best results for them as well. (more…)

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