Western Sydney Experts Warn Communities to Prepare for Bushfire Season

Key Points

• Western Sydney University has made experts available to comment on the start of the Bush Fire Danger Period and risks facing communities.
• Professor Sebastian Pfautsch warned that extreme spring temperatures may signal dangerous summer heat, with parts of Greater Sydney potentially experiencing maximum temperatures above 45°C.
• Associate Professor Ian Wright urged households in bushfire-prone areas to assess water supplies, including tanks, swimming pools and farm dams, and to store drinking water for emergencies.
• Dr Maggie Davidson highlighted the health risks associated with bushfire smoke, particularly for people with respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, older adults, infants, young children and pregnant people.
• Associate Professor Rachael Nolan said fuel loads have recovered across much of the land affected by the 2019–20 fires and could again support bushfires if weather conditions become sufficiently hot and dry.
• Adjunct Professor Karleen Gribble advised families with babies and toddlers to prepare evacuation plans early because caring for young children can make emergency evacuation more time-consuming.
• Associate Professor Stephen Healy said climate readiness also depends on neighbourhood infrastructure, including shade, water, transport, parks, libraries and trusted community relationships.

Sydney Now Magazine (SNM) October 2, 2026 – Western Sydney University has made a group of specialists available to discuss risks facing communities as the Bush Fire Danger Period begins, with the experts focusing on bushfire fuels, extreme heat, smoke exposure, emergency water supplies, evacuation planning and climate adaptation. The university’s experts have emphasised that preparation needs to account not only for the possibility of fire, but also for associated heat, health, water and household challenges. The NSW Bush Fire Danger Period normally runs from October 1 to March 31, although its timing can be varied according to local conditions.

The university’s latest expert commentary covers a broad range of issues likely to affect communities across Western Sydney and other bushfire-prone areas during the coming season. The material comes from Western Sydney University rather than an independently reported media investigation, so the comments below are attributed to the university and its named academics. No individual media journalist is identified in the supplied material, and no journalist name has been added.

What are Western Sydney University experts warning communities about?

The central message from the university’s experts is that bushfire preparation involves several interconnected risks.

Extreme heat can dry vegetation and increase stress on people and infrastructure. Bushfire smoke can create significant air-quality problems, while fires can place pressure on water supplies and other essential services. Families with babies and young children face additional practical challenges during evacuation, while residents of social housing and other urban communities may depend on wider neighbourhood infrastructure to remain safe during periods of extreme heat.

The university said its specialists are available to comment on bushfire risk and fuel loads, smoke and health, water supplies during emergencies, extreme heat, and preparation for babies, young children and families.

The NSW Government’s environmental information confirms that the Bush Fire Danger Period operates from October 1 to March 31, during which the NSW Rural Fire Service applies restrictions involving fire permits and total fire bans.

How could extreme heat affect communities during the bushfire season?

Professor Sebastian Pfautsch of the School of Social Sciences and Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment said the temperatures experienced during spring provide an indication of the conditions communities could face during summer.

Pfautsch is an expert in urban cooling and heat adaptation and leads Delta HQ, an initiative associated with Western Sydney University’s Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment. His work focuses on climate-integrated approaches for built and natural environments.

According to Western Sydney University, Pfautsch said the unusually intense spring temperatures were providing an indication of what could be expected during summer.

He said Greater Sydney had been examined extensively for extreme heat and that even communities in Sydney’s eastern suburbs needed to prepare for extreme heat events in which maximum air temperatures could exceed 45°C.

Pfautsch also said the cooling effect of the sea breeze has limited reach. This means some communities cannot rely on coastal cooling during severe heat events.

His recommended preparation includes having a heat endurance plan covering medication and food safety in the event of a power outage, contact details for neighbours who may need assistance or be able to provide help, and daily routines designed to keep household members and pets cool.

The warning adds another dimension to bushfire preparedness because extreme heat can affect communities before, during and after a fire emergency.

Why is water important when households prepare for bushfires?

Associate Professor Ian Wright of Western Sydney University’s School of Science has urged residents in bushfire-prone locations to assess their available water supplies before an emergency occurs.

Wright is a water scientist who teaches water science and management, environmental planning and environmental regulation. His previous professional experience included work as a scientist in the urban water industry, including with Sydney Water.

According to Western Sydney University, Wright said residents with a water tank, swimming pool or farm dam should consider whether firefighters could easily access the water.

He also recommended that households make firefighters aware of available supplies by placing a robust sign at the front gate identifying a pool or tank.

Wright warned that town water supplies can run dry during fire emergencies. He also highlighted the possibility of drinking-water shortages during an emergency and in the days that follow.

For that reason, he recommended storing tap water as part of emergency preparation.

The issue is particularly relevant because a bushfire can disrupt normal access to services at the same time that demand for water may increase.

Wright’s comments also reflect his broader research experience concerning water quality and the environmental effects of fires on waterways and wetlands in the Blue Mountains region.

What are the health risks from bushfire smoke?

Dr Maggie Davidson, a Senior Lecturer in Environmental Health and Occupational Hygiene at Western Sydney University, said bushfire smoke should not be viewed simply as visible particles.

Davidson has more than two decades of experience in environmental health, occupational hygiene, toxicology, risk assessment, research and public health practice. Her teaching includes air-pollution assessment and control, toxicology, occupational health, disease prevention and environmental monitoring.

According to Western Sydney University, Davidson said smoke is a changing mixture of particles, gases and vapours. Its composition and potential health effects depend on what is burning, how it burns and the prevailing weather conditions.

She referred to conditions during Australia’s 2019–20 Black Summer bushfires as an example of the potential severity of smoke exposure.

During that period, communities including Katoomba experienced periods of extremely poor air quality. Davidson said the Katoomba monitoring station recorded very high concentrations of fine particulate matter, ozone and carbon monoxide.

The university’s statement records that hourly PM2.5 concentrations at the Katoomba monitoring station reached approximately 1,400 micrograms per cubic metre during the early hours of December 27, 2019, compared with typical concentrations of less than 10 micrograms per cubic metre.

Davidson said the same monitoring station also recorded elevated one-hour average ozone and carbon monoxide concentrations during the period.

She said the observations demonstrated the potentially extreme variability and severity of smoke exposure during major bushfire events.

Who is particularly vulnerable to bushfire smoke?

Davidson identified several groups as being at greater risk during periods of heavy smoke.

These include people with existing heart or lung conditions, including asthma, emphysema and chronic bronchitis. Older adults, infants, young children, pregnant people and people with conditions such as diabetes were also identified as groups requiring particular attention.

According to Davidson’s advice, people in these groups should follow official health guidance during periods of heavy smoke and take additional steps to reduce their exposure.

Her comments place smoke preparation alongside direct fire preparation as an important part of bushfire readiness.

The historical experience of the Black Summer fires also provides context for the warning. Western Sydney University has previously published expert commentary on bushfire risks, including research concerning the environmental and water impacts associated with the 2019–20 fires.

Have bushfire fuel loads recovered since the 2019–20 fires?

Associate Professor Rachael Nolan, Director of the NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, said fuel conditions have recovered across much of the area affected by the 2019–20 megafires.

Nolan’s research focuses on fire effects on forests, forest flammability, fuel loads and fuel moisture. The NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre brings together universities, NSW government agencies and Indigenous community organisations to address bushfires and other natural hazards.

According to Western Sydney University, Nolan said fuel loads had recovered following the 2019–20 megafires, with successive La Niña events supporting vegetation growth.

Monitoring by the NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre indicates that fuels across much of the 2019–20 firegrounds can again sustain bushfires.

However, Nolan stressed that the presence of fuel alone does not determine whether major fires will occur. Weather conditions during the coming season will be an important factor.

She said conditions were not expected to be as dry as those preceding the 2019–20 fire season, but heatwaves could rapidly dry vegetation enough to carry fire.

Western Sydney University has previously published Nolan’s warnings that warm and windy conditions can quickly dry fuels and increase fire risk, particularly for grass fires.

Why are babies and young children a particular concern during evacuations?

Adjunct Professor Karleen Gribble of the School of Nursing and Midwifery has focused on the challenges faced by families with babies and young children during emergencies.

Gribble has researched infants and young children in emergencies since 2006 and was involved in the Babies and Young Children in the Black Summer Study, known as the BiBS Study.

According to Western Sydney University, Gribble said caring for a baby or toddler can profoundly affect a family’s experience of an emergency because tasks take longer, including packing for evacuation.

She recommended that parents develop disaster plans before an emergency occurs.

Her advice includes planning to leave early, preparing an evacuation kit specifically for children and considering evacuation to the home of a friend or family member instead of an evacuation centre where possible.

The university has previously published Gribble’s research and commentary on families with babies and toddlers during disasters. In earlier advice, she also highlighted the vulnerability of babies to heat stress and dehydration.

The current material additionally states that babies younger than six months should not be given water to drink because their immature kidneys can be affected by excessive water intake. The university’s expert advice says parents should account for this when preparing for hot weather and emergencies.

How does urban planning affect climate readiness?

Associate Professor Stephen Healy of Western Sydney University’s School of Social Sciences and Institute for Culture and Society said climate readiness extends beyond individual homes.

Healy is an Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Studies whose research includes climate adaptation, social transformation, circular economies and community-based approaches.

According to Western Sydney University, Healy said thermal safety for communities depends partly on the wider urban environment.

He identified shade, water, transport, parks, libraries, community rooms and trusted relationships as factors that can help residents manage dangerous heat.

His research with social housing residents in Western Sydney has examined how thermal safety is influenced by conditions outside individual homes.

Healy also said residents should not be regarded solely as vulnerable to climate change. He said communities possess practical knowledge about how heat is experienced, managed and reduced, and argued that this knowledge should inform the adaptation of homes, neighbourhoods and public spaces.

His comments broaden the discussion from emergency response to longer-term climate adaptation.

What does the development mean for Western Sydney residents?

The university’s collection of expert advice points to several practical areas of preparation: understanding bushfire risks, checking available water supplies, reducing smoke exposure, planning evacuation arrangements and preparing for extreme heat.

The advice also indicates that different households can face different challenges.

Residents with existing health conditions may have additional smoke-related concerns. Families with babies and toddlers may need additional time and equipment for evacuation. People without access to strong cooling at home may depend more heavily on neighbourhood facilities and community networks during severe heat.

The university’s previous bushfire commentary has similarly highlighted the connections between fire, heat, water and environmental impacts. After the Black Summer fires, heavy rainfall in the Blue Mountains contributed to erosion and damage to sensitive peat wetlands, while water-quality problems were also reported in the Warragamba Dam catchment.

What is the background to the Bush Fire Danger Period?

The NSW Bush Fire Danger Period is legislated as running from October 1 to March 31, although the period can be varied for particular areas according to local risk.

The NSW Government states that during the period the NSW Rural Fire Service restricts the use of fire through requirements including fire permits and total fire bans.

The experience of the 2019–20 fire season remains an important reference point for researchers and emergency planners.

The NSW Bushfire Inquiry found that the 2019–20 season was exceptionally long, with fires beginning in July 2019 and continuing into March 2020. The inquiry also documented the role of drought, extreme heat, dry fuels and fire weather in the severity of that season.

Western Sydney University has continued to publish expert analysis of bushfire preparedness, extreme heat, water and emergency planning in subsequent years. Its 2023 commentary, for example, brought together experts discussing bushfire risk, heat, water impacts and the needs of families with young children.

How could the development affect Western Sydney communities during the coming season?

The immediate effect of the university’s advice is to place several preparation issues alongside the conventional focus on fire danger.

For households in bushfire-prone areas, the development may increase attention on emergency water supplies, evacuation arrangements and the management of combustible vegetation. For people vulnerable to smoke, the emphasis is on reducing exposure and following official health advice when air quality deteriorates.

Extreme heat could also become an important factor in emergency planning. Pfautsch’s warning about temperatures potentially exceeding 45°C in parts of Greater Sydney means that residents may need to consider heat protection separately from direct fire exposure.

For families with babies and toddlers, Gribble’s advice highlights the additional preparation required before an evacuation becomes necessary. Healy’s research meanwhile points to the importance of public spaces, transport, shade and community networks in helping residents manage severe heat.

These are areas identified by the university’s experts rather than forecasts of specific fires or outcomes. The actual severity of the coming bushfire season will depend on weather, fuel moisture, vegetation conditions and other factors. Nolan specifically noted that heatwaves could rapidly dry fuels even if overall conditions are not as dry as those preceding the 2019–20 fires.